All Four Major Banks Now Predict March Rate Hike — What It Means for Non-Bank Borrowers

Australia's mortgage market is bracing for a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia's March 17 board meeting, with all four major banks — Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac, and ANZ — now aligned in forecasting an increase from the current cash rate of 3.85%.

RBA Signals Concern Over Inflation

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivered a pointed message this week: inflation is running hotter than expected. Consumer inflation expectations have surged, and the January 2026 CPI print of 3.8% annual growth — released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics — has reinforced concerns that the RBA's target band of 2–3% remains out of reach.

Hauser's remarks are significant. Just weeks ago, the RBA held the cash rate steady at 3.85% following a February cut from 4.10%. A reversal within a single meeting cycle would be historically unusual, but the data has shifted the major banks' outlooks sharply.

All Four Majors in Agreement

For the first time this cycle, CBA, NAB, Westpac, and ANZ all share the same forecast: a 25 basis point hike at the March 17 meeting. Markets are now pricing a hike probability above 80%.

The shift reflects a combination of factors:

• Sticky services inflation: Non-tradeable inflation, particularly in rents and services, remains persistently high
• Labour market resilience: Employment growth has continued to surprise to the upside, reducing urgency for the RBA to ease
• Consumer inflation expectations: Survey-based expectations have jumped, which the RBA historically treats as a leading risk indicator

What This Means for Borrowers

If the RBA hikes on March 17, the cash rate would rise to 4.10% — precisely reversing the February cut. For variable-rate borrowers on big bank products, monthly repayments on a $700,000 loan would increase by approximately $110–$120.

However, not all borrowers are equally exposed.

Non-bank lenders like MPFG Capital price their products differently. Alt Doc loans, commercial loans, and private funding products are structured around risk profiles and individual circumstances — not just the cash rate. For self-employed borrowers, new migrants, and those with non-traditional income documentation, the rate environment is one factor among many.

MPFG's Perspective

At MPFG Capital, we work with borrowers who don't fit the standard bank mould. A rate hike at the major banks can actually prompt more borrowers to explore non-bank alternatives — particularly when tightening credit conditions make bank approval harder to obtain.

If you're self-employed, hold a PR or temporary visa, or have been declined by a major bank, the rate cycle matters less than finding the right lender for your situation. MPFG's Alt Doc and commercial lending products are assessed on your actual financial position, not a standardised payslip model.

The March 17 RBA decision will be announced at 2:30pm AEDT. We'll continue to monitor the outcome and its implications for the non-bank lending market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Loan approval is subject to individual assessment. Past rate movements do not guarantee future outcomes.