Lenders Split on the Cash Rate: Bendigo Warns of One More Hike as CBA Pencils In Cuts

Australia's lenders no longer agree on where interest rates are heading. Bendigo Bank has warned that one more cash rate hike remains possible before the end of 2026, while Commonwealth Bank has sketched out dates for future cuts. With the Reserve Bank of Australia holding the cash rate target at 4.35% at its June meeting — and the next decision due 11 August 2026 — borrowers are caught between two credible but opposing scenarios.

Why the disagreement matters

When the big lenders themselves diverge, it is a signal that the data is genuinely mixed. Headline inflation is stuck at 4.0% (ABS, May 2026), unemployment sits at 4.4%, and GDP growth was a soft 0.3% in the March quarter. That combination gives the RBA reasons to stay cautious in either direction. For a borrower, the practical takeaway is not to bet the household budget on a single forecast.

What this means for borrowers

• Refinancers: A two-sided outlook rewards flexibility. Split loans, offset accounts and the ability to move if your current lender lags the market all reduce your exposure to being on the wrong side of the next move.
• Self-employed and Alt Doc borrowers: Rate direction is less important than approval certainty. Being able to document income through BAS statements or an accountant's letter — rather than payslips — is what keeps a purchase or refinance on track regardless of where the cash rate lands.
• Fixed vs variable: Neither is 'right' in this climate. Fixing buys certainty if hikes come; staying variable captures relief if cuts arrive. The decision should follow your cash-flow needs, not a headline.

The MPFG view

As a non-bank lender, MPFG's role is to keep finance accessible when the rate outlook is unclear and mainstream approval criteria tighten. We don't forecast the cash rate — we structure loans so borrowers, particularly self-employed clients and new migrants, retain options whichever way the RBA moves. In an environment where even the major banks can't agree, a lender who assesses your real income and offers a clear path to refinance is worth more than a prediction.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or credit advice. Rates and outcomes depend on individual circumstances.