MPFG Capital | Non-Bank Lender Australia

Australia's Housing Market in 2026: A Tale of Two Markets

New analysis from CoreLogic reveals a striking divergence across Australia's property markets heading into the first quarter of 2026. Rather than a uniform national trend, Australian residential property has splintered into distinct regional performers and laggards — with significant implications for buyers, investors, and those seeking finance.

The CoreLogic Picture: Who's Rising, Who's Flattening

According to CoreLogic's latest insights:

Perth continues to sprint ahead, recording the strongest capital city growth nationally
Brisbane and Adelaide are climbing steadily, maintaining momentum from 2025
Sydney and Melbourne values have flattened, with both markets cooling after previous cycles of strong growth
Regional markets are surging, with areas outside capital cities outpacing the big metros as buyers seek affordability and lifestyle

CoreLogic's monthly Housing Chart Pack for February 2026 underscores this divergence, showing that the national headline figures mask significant variation at the city and regional level.

What's Driving the Split?

Several structural factors are shaping this divergence:

Perth's strength is underpinned by Western Australia's mining sector, interstate migration, and a persistent undersupply of housing relative to demand. Even with rates at 3.85%, Perth's relative affordability compared to Sydney continues to attract buyers.

Brisbane and Adelaide are benefiting from ongoing population growth, infrastructure investment (including post-Olympic planning in Southeast Queensland), and housing affordability relative to Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney and Melbourne's flatness reflects affordability ceilings after years of strong growth, higher mortgage stress among existing owners at current rate levels, and reduced investor activity.

The regional surge reflects a structural shift accelerated by the pandemic-era remote work normalisation — many Australians have permanently relocated and are not returning to capitals, sustaining demand in regional centres.

Implications for Borrowers Considering a Property Purchase

Market	Current Trend	Finance Consideration
Perth	Strong growth	Act quickly; prices still rising
Brisbane	Steady growth	Good long-term fundamentals
Adelaide	Solid gains	Lower entry point than east coast
Sydney	Flat to negative	Buyer's market in some suburbs
Melbourne	Flat	Negotiating room available
Regional	Surging	Assess local supply/demand carefully

Non-Bank Lending Across All Markets

One advantage of working with a non-bank lender like MPFG Capital is the ability to finance property in markets where valuations are moving quickly. Non-bank lenders:

Can assess deals in regional and non-metropolitan areas that major banks sometimes treat as higher risk
Offer commercial loans for investors looking at markets like Perth and Brisbane with strong rental yields
Provide bridging finance for buyers who want to move quickly in fast-moving markets without waiting for a sold property settlement

*Property market data referenced in this article is sourced from CoreLogic Australia. This article provides general information only and does not constitute financial advice. MPFG Capital holds ACL 553698.*

MPFG Capital's View

Australia's housing market is not one market — it's many. Whether you're buying in a surging Perth suburb or a lifestyle-driven regional town, your finance needs are unique. MPFG Capital's team across Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane can help you navigate lending in any of these markets, with particular expertise in alt doc and commercial lending for self-employed borrowers.