All Four Major Australian Banks Now Forecast an RBA Rate Rise — What Borrowers Should Do Before 29 September

Key takeaway: As of 9 September 2026, all four major Australian banks — CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac — have aligned behind a forecast of an RBA rate rise at or before November. With inflation at 3.5% and the cash rate at 4.35%, borrowers — particularly self-employed Australians — need to act before the next RBA board meeting on 29 September.

Westpac's Reversal Completes a Big Four Consensus

For several months, Westpac held a dissenting view on Australian interest rates, forecasting no change while CBA, NAB, and ANZ had already shifted to a rate-rise outlook. On 9 September 2026, Westpac officially reversed course, aligning its forecast with the other three major banks.

This is a significant moment. A unified forecast from Australia's Big Four is not merely a prediction — it reflects the cumulative weight of economic models, lending data, and forward guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia itself. When all four align, borrowers should pay close attention.

The next RBA board meeting is scheduled for 29 September 2026, with the decision to be announced at 2:30pm AEST.

The Economic Case for a Rate Rise

The RBA's cash rate has sat at 4.35% since 12 August 2026. Despite this elevated setting, inflation has remained sticky. The Consumer Price Index recorded a 3.5% annual change in July 2026 (ABS), still above the RBA's 2–3% target band.

Australia's economy is growing, but modestly: GDP expanded 0.4% in the June 2026 quarter (ABS), while unemployment held at 4.5% — a level the RBA views as consistent with a tight labour market. This combination of persistent inflation and low unemployment gives the RBA both reason and room to raise.

"When every major bank shifts its forecast to a rate rise, that's not a prediction — that's a signal to borrowers."

What a Rate Rise Means in Dollar Terms

Standard variable rate mortgages will reprice within days of any RBA decision, typically in full. For a borrower with a $750,000 variable loan, a 0.25% rate rise adds approximately $94 per month to minimum repayments. On a $1.2M loan, that figure rises to roughly $150 per month.

Fixed-rate borrowers are insulated from immediate changes. However, borrowers rolling off fixed terms — or sitting on Alt Doc variable products — face direct exposure.

Consumer sentiment data reinforces the anxiety: according to Australian Broker (9 September 2026), two in three Australian borrowers are already bracing for a mortgage rate increase, with sentiment hitting a recent low.

What This Means for MPFG Borrowers

For self-employed borrowers and small business owners — the core clients of non-bank lenders like MPFG — an imminent rate rise creates urgency. Alt Doc loan products from non-bank lenders often include fixed-rate options that can lock in today's rate before any increase takes effect.

If you are on a variable rate and approaching a refinance or annual loan review, now is the time to explore your options. MPFG's Easy Refi product allows self-employed borrowers to refinance up to $7.5M, with flexible income documentation that the major banks cannot accommodate. Acting before 29 September could mean locking in a rate before any uplift is applied.

Non-bank lenders also typically move more slowly than major banks when repricing variable products — providing an additional buffer if you need time to restructure.

FAQ

Will the RBA definitely raise rates on 29 September 2026?

The RBA does not pre-commit to rate decisions ahead of board meetings. While all four major banks now forecast a rise, the final decision will depend on data released between now and meeting day, including the next CPI update on 30 September 2026. A rate hold at September remains possible, with November also cited as a potential timing.

How does a rate rise affect self-employed borrowers differently?

Self-employed borrowers on variable Alt Doc loans face the same rate movement as salaried borrowers on equivalent products. However, because their income verification is more complex, refinancing or converting to a fixed rate requires more preparation time. Early action — now, before a rise is announced — allows more options.

What is the current RBA cash rate and when does it next meet?

The cash rate is currently 4.35%, set on 12 August 2026. The next scheduled board meeting is 29 September 2026, with the decision announced at 2:30pm AEST.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or credit advice. All applications are subject to credit assessment by MPFG Capital (ACL 553698).