Why All Four Major Banks Now Expect an RBA Rate Hike on 29 September 2026

Key takeaway: ANZ has become the first major bank to forecast back-to-back cash rate rises, with Westpac, CBA, and NAB now aligning on a rate increase at the RBA's 29 September 2026 board meeting — as RBA Governor Michele Bullock warns that inflation risks are "materialising."

The Rate Data Right Now

What the Big Four Banks Are Forecasting

ANZ has made the most striking call: it is now the first major bank to officially forecast back-to-back cash rate increases. Westpac and Commonwealth Bank have joined the consensus, each expecting the RBA to lift the cash rate at the upcoming 29 September board meeting. NAB has also aligned with this view, making this a rare moment of unanimity among Australia's four largest banks.

The shift follows RBA Governor Michele Bullock's appearance before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics on 18 September 2026, where she signalled that upside inflation pressures are no longer just a risk — they are beginning to arrive.

Why RBA Governor Bullock Is Sounding the Alarm

The July 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% annual inflation — well above the RBA's 2–3% target band — sits at the heart of the concern. In parliamentary testimony, Governor Bullock stated that upside inflation risks are beginning to materialise, a phrase financial markets have interpreted as a strong signal of imminent action.

"Upside inflation risks are beginning to materialise." — RBA Governor Michele Bullock, September 2026

If the RBA acts on 29 September, it would mark a shift from the cautious hold position maintained since the August 2026 decision to keep rates at 4.35%.

What Back-to-Back Hikes Would Mean for Mortgage Holders

A rate increase at the 29 September meeting would push the cash rate above 4.35%, adding further pressure on variable-rate borrowers. For Australians already stretched by rising living costs, the timing is difficult. Borrowers with a $750,000 variable-rate loan can expect roughly $100–$110 added to monthly repayments for each 0.25% increase in the cash rate.

However, back-to-back hikes have historically been followed by stabilisation periods. Borrowers with fixed-rate products or those who have structured their loans carefully may be insulated in the short term.

What This Means for MPFG Borrowers: Non-Bank Options Before the September Decision

For self-employed borrowers and property investors already navigating complex income documentation requirements, rising rates add urgency to reviewing their loan structures. Non-bank lenders like MPFG Capital offer variable and fixed-rate products — including Alt Doc home loans — that do not require payslips or traditional income verification.

If you are currently on a variable rate and concerned about further increases, now is a prudent time to explore refinancing options. MPFG's Easy Refinance program allows eligible borrowers to refinance up to $7.5 million, with flexible income documentation requirements suited to self-employed and business owner borrowers.

FAQ

Will the RBA definitely raise rates on 29 September 2026?

As of 21 September 2026, all four major Australian banks are forecasting a rate increase at the 29 September board meeting. However, RBA decisions are never guaranteed — the Board considers all available economic data including employment, inflation, and global conditions before each meeting.

How much could a 0.25% rate hike add to my monthly repayments?

As a rough guide, a 0.25% increase on a $750,000 variable-rate loan adds approximately $100–$110 per month. The exact figure depends on your loan balance, current rate, and repayment type. Consult your broker for a precise calculation.

What options do self-employed borrowers have if rates keep rising?

Self-employed borrowers have several strategies: refinancing to a lower-rate non-bank product, switching from variable to fixed-rate components, or splitting the loan. MPFG Capital's Alt Doc and Easy Refinance products are specifically designed for borrowers who cannot meet traditional bank income documentation requirements.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or credit advice. All applications are subject to credit assessment by MPFG Capital (ACL 553698).