RBA Cash Rate Decision 3 November 2026: What a Hike to an 18-Year High Means for Non-Bank Borrowers

Key takeaway: The RBA announces its November cash rate decision at 2:30pm on 3 November 2026. With all four major Australian banks tipping a hike that would push the rate to an 18-year high, here is what self-employed borrowers, property investors, and commercial loan applicants need to know — and why non-bank lenders matter more than ever.

Why the RBA Is Expected to Hike Again

Australia's September 2026 quarter CPI came in at 4.3% annually (ABS) — well above the RBA's 2–3% target band. Persistent inflation in services and housing costs has kept price pressures elevated. All four major Australian banks are now tipping a hike on 3 November 2026, which would push the cash rate to its highest level in 18 years, according to The Adviser (2 November 2026).

The RBA Board faces a narrow path: inflation remains stubbornly above target while economic growth has slowed to 0.4% quarterly (ABS, June 2026). The Board's clear preference is to bring inflation back to target, even at the cost of some economic pain.

"Another rate rise looms as stubborn inflation threatens to deepen the squeeze on Australian borrowers." — The Adviser, 2 November 2026

How Each 0.25% Hike Affects Your Repayments

For variable rate borrowers, each 25-basis-point increase adds approximately $80–$100 per month to repayments on a $500,000 loan. On a $1 million commercial loan, the impact is roughly $200–$250 per month per 25bps move.

The deeper issue is cumulative pressure. Borrowers who have absorbed multiple rate rises since 2022 are operating with significantly less buffer than they had when rates were at historic lows. Banks' credit teams are well aware of this, and approval rates for borderline applications have tightened accordingly.

Non-Bank Lenders vs the Major Banks in a Rate-Rise Cycle

When rates rise, APRA's mandatory 3% serviceability buffer becomes more punishing. Under APRA requirements, banks must assess a borrower's ability to repay at the offered rate plus 3%. As the offered rate rises, the test rate rises with it — compressing how much the banks will lend.

Non-bank lenders like MPFG Capital operate outside APRA's formal buffer requirement. This means MPFG can assess applications on actual merits — real income, real expenses, real assets — rather than an increasingly restrictive stress test that narrows borrowing capacity even for financially sound borrowers.

"APRA's buffer was designed to protect the financial system, not to prevent creditworthy borrowers from accessing capital." — MPFG Capital

What Self-Employed and Alt Doc Borrowers Should Do Now

For self-employed borrowers, a rate hike creates two competing pressures. Borrowing capacity shrinks with each rise, while refinancing existing debt at better terms becomes more valuable. MPFG's Alt Doc product assesses self-employed income using BAS statements, accountant letters, and business bank statements — enabling fast pre-approval without waiting for a full ATO tax return assessment.

If the major banks have declined your application, now is the time to understand your actual borrowing capacity — not the banks' stress-tested version of it.

What This Means for MPFG Borrowers

Rate hikes create urgency. At MPFG Capital, we process Alt Doc, commercial, and bridging applications across all market cycles. The borrowers who fare best are those who act early — securing pre-approval before valuations shift or lending criteria tighten further.

Whether you are exploring a self-employed home loan, a commercial property acquisition, or a bridging loan to fund a property transaction, you can review your options at MPFG Capital products.

FAQ

What cash rate is the RBA expected to set on 3 November 2026?

All four major Australian banks have tipped a 25-basis-point increase from the current 4.60%, which would put the cash rate at 4.85% — its highest level in 18 years. The RBA announces the decision at 2:30pm AEST on 3 November 2026.

Does a rate hike change what a non-bank lender will approve?

Unlike APRA-regulated banks, non-bank lenders are not required to apply a fixed serviceability buffer on top of the offered rate. MPFG Capital assesses applications based on actual documented income and expenses. As banks tighten their criteria, more borrowers find that a non-bank lender is their clearest path to approval.

Should I fix my rate before a hike is confirmed?

Fixed rates are typically priced ahead of expected RBA moves, so they may already reflect the anticipated hike. Whether to fix or stay variable depends on your loan size, remaining term, and risk tolerance. We recommend speaking with a qualified credit adviser before making any rate structure decision.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or credit advice. All applications are subject to credit assessment by MPFG Capital (ACL 553698).